If ever there was a time for Otto Ado’s Ghana side to be perfect, it is today.
The Black Stars will be knocked out of the 2022 World Cup today if they lose to South Korea.
A point puts Otto Addo’s side in a precarious position going into the final round of games, particularly if the other group game doesn’t go to plan.
A win would put Ghana in a decent position going into a final, very emotion-driven game against Uruguay.
So what are the rules for qualification and the permutations for the Black Stars.
The Rules
The World Cup has eight groups, each with four teams. The top two teams in each group qualify for the knockout rounds.
FIFA’s rules state that teams are ranked according to points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss). If tied on points, tiebreakers are applied in the following order:
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Head to Head (If more than two teams are tied, all criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams
- Fair play (Lower disciplinary points total in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 4 points for a direct red card, 5 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card)
- Drawing of Lots
Group H situation
How do things stand in Group H after the first round of matches?
So what would a win, draw or loss for Ghana against South Korea mean today?
SCENARIO 1: If Ghana loses to South Korea
- The Black Stars will be eliminated from the 2022 World Cup with a game to play. No margin of victory against Uruguay would help reverse this.
SCENARIO 2: If Ghana draws with South Korea
- A draw with South Korea would put Ghana in a precarious position, especially if Uruguay beats Portugal. It will leave the Black Stars needing a victory against Uruguay to stay in the competition.
- However, draws in Ghana’s last two games might actually be enough to see the Black Stars qualify. It would require Portugal to beat both Uruguay and South Korea by more than a two-goal margin. That scenario would put Ghana on two points, the same as South Korea and Uruguay but with a better goal difference than both teams.
SCENARIO 3: If Ghana beats South Korea
- Ghana will be in a very strong position going into the final round of games.
- A win for Portugal over Uruguay will strengthen that position. Ghana would be able to qualify with a draw against Uruguay, unless South Korea picks up a thumping victory over Portugal that puts their goal difference above Ghana’s.