As Liverpool celebrate title number 20, Arsenal fans will reflect on a season that promised so much but ultimately ended in failure on all fronts.
The Gunners were seen as the most credible challengers to reigning champions Manchester City and expected to once again go toe to toe with City. However, it was not meant to be as Arne Slot’s Liverpool romped to the title and Arsenal were unable to compete as they expected in a season where their chief tormentors were unable to mount a challenge themselves.
Their Champions League campaign offered a last bit of hope, but this was snuffed out, despite a brave performance in Paris and with it their last chance for silverware.
Between injuries and some questionable refereeing decisions, Arsenal can rightly feel like Lady Luck has abandoned them this season. The focus of this will be how much Bukayo Saka’s injury affected Arsenal’s season, and if there is any truth to the assertion that if he were fit, they might have won the league.
Since 2021, Saka has been Arsenal’s most important offensive player, and he has consistently delivered. In the Premier League, he has consistently scored at least 10 goals and added at least 7 assists in each of the last 3 seasons, which has ranked him in the top 10 for goal contributions for the aforementioned seasons.
These numbers are backed by consistent underlying numbers. In each of the last 3 seasons, Saka has ranked in the top 10 for shot-creating actions, goal-creating actions, key passes, shots, progressive carries, carries into the penalty area, and fouls drawn.
When you put this all together, you get the picture of a devastating creative force out wide who can carry the ball well and create chances at a high rate. It is unsurprising Arsenal first team manager, Mikel Arteta, has been reluctant to rest him. In each of the last 3 seasons, Saka has started at least 35 games and played at least 85% of his side’s minutes. With this in mind, Saka’s eventual hamstring tear felt inevitable yet ultimately avoidable.
Saka’s absence began on 21st December 2024, as Arsenal won 5-1 despite the forward playing only the first 23 minutes. Saka did not play a league game until 1st April 2025, when he made a goal scoring return against Fulham.
When Saka went down, Arsenal were 7 points behind Liverpool by the time the Fulham game arrived, the gap was 12 points. This gives some credence to Arsenal’s claim that his absence affected their title push, but do the numbers support that there was a significant difference in Arsenal’s performances?
This comparison will be done using the game’s Saka started before his injury, excluding the Crystal Palace game which will be compared to the games Arsenal played until his return against Fulham to see what changed for Arsenal.
Interestingly, Arsenal’s points per game stayed the same at 2, meaning that results did not ultimately change but their inability to ramp up the performances and match Liverpool in that period ultimately cost them. When we look at the side’s attacking performance, the picture becomes clearer, Arsenal struggled to create chances and score goals.
Using per-game stats in the matches we used to measure Saka’s absence, Arsenal scored 1.58 goals per game, a drop from the 1.93 when he started games in the first half of the season.
This matches the xG which dropped from 1.74 to 1.27, this xG drop could likely be because without Saka’s penetration and creativity Arsenal struggled to get as close to the goal as their average distance per shot went from 14.38 yards to 15.85, the increased distance likely contributed to a lower non penalty xG per shot which reduced from 0.12 to 0.10 a slight drop bun indicative of a lower quality of chance, this likely explains why Arsenal also had 1 less shot on target in that period and 2% lower conversion rate.
All this, combined with taking one less shot game, shows that Arsenal’s attack was just not as good without Saka and likely was why they were unable to rally and win more games in that period.
Arsenal clearly have a case to say that Saka’s absence affected their performances and perhaps they could have played better in that period and made it difficult for Liverpool but the difference in the stats leads me to believe that they may have won a few more point but not enough to change the outcome of the title race.
It is more than likely that they would have delayed Liverpool’s coronation, but ultimately, their poor start relative to Liverpool was insurmountable.
