The Black Meteors’ 3-2 loss to hosts Egypt in Tuesday night’s U-23 AFCON encounter has put the team’s chances of progressing from the group in a very precarious situation.
With the Meteors now third in their group, with only one point from their two games so far, Ghana will need a huge matchday three to make it out of the group.
The added benefit of the top three teams making it through to the Olympics in 2020, a competition Ghana have been absent from since 2004, should make progression from the group even more crucial for the Black Meteors.
So what do the Black Meteors need in order to make it out of Group A?
The Contenders
Egypt are already through to the semis after two wins from two games. A draw in their final game against Cameroon would help them qualify top of the group. Cameroon are in a comfortable position and only need a point to qualify along with the hosts. Ghana are in third and need to beat Mali and hope results go their way in the other group game. Mali are already out of contention after losing both of their opening two games.
The Rules
CAF’s rules for the U-23 AFCON tournament state that should two sides finish level on points in the group stages, they will be separated based on the following criteria, in order.
- The team that obtained the most points in the match between the teams in question
- The goal difference in all group matches
- The largest number of goals scored in all group matches
- A drawing of lots conducted by the Organising Committee
The Permutations
With the match between the Black Stars and Cameroon having ended in a draw, the deciding factor might be goal difference or goals scored.
Current Group A goal differences
Egypt – 2
Cameroon – 1
Ghana – – 1
Mali – – 2
Current Group A goals scored
Egypt – 4
Cameroon – 2
Ghana – 3
Mali – 0
If Black Meteors beat Mali
- Egypt go through as group winners with a win over Cameroon. Cameroon or Ghana go through depending on which side has a better goal difference after the final round of games in the group.
- Egypt go through as group winners with a draw with Cameroon. Cameroon go through as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out.
- Cameroon go through as group winners with a win over Egypt. Egypt join them as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out.
If Black Meteors draw with Mali
- Egypt go through as group winners with a win against Cameroon. Cameroon join them as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out
- Egypt go through as group winners with a draw with Cameroon. Cameroon go through as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out.
- Cameroon go through as group winners with a win over Egypt. Egypt join them as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out.
If Black Meteors lose to Mali
- Egypt go through as group winners with a win against Cameroon. Cameroon join them as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out, with Ghana finishing bottom of the group.
- Egypt go through as group winners with a draw with Cameroon. Cameroon go through as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out, with Ghana finishing bottom of the group.
- Cameroon go through as group winners with a win over Egypt. Egypt join them as runners-up. Ghana and Mali go out, with Ghana finishing bottom of the group.
