It has been a season to forget for Arsenal captain, Martin Ødegaard. The Norwegian midfielder has looked far below the level that saw him hailed as one of the best midfielders in the league and make two consecutive PFA Teams of the Season whilst claiming his club’s player of the season award.
Ødegaard had averaged 20 goal contributions over the last 2 Premier League seasons starting 72 out of 76 games in that period but since a nasty ankle injury during the first half of the season he has looked short of his best. Where has it gone wrong for the midfield maestro and what can the numbers tell us about his performances.
The most obvious and glaring drop is his reduced goal contributions, his 8 goals and 10 assists last season is down to 2 goals and 6 assists and even accounting for injury per 90 numbers show a significant decline in the goals category. Last season Ødegaard recorded 0.23 goals per 90 this is down to 0.09 and represents more than 50% decrease, this coupled with his slight decline in assists from 0.29 to 0.26 shows a player who is struggling to make decisive contributions to his team.
One could counter that maybe Ødegaard is still creating chances at a high level and his teammates are letting him down or that he is not being furnished with high quality chances to finish and that would explain his woes. Well his non penalty xG per 90 is almost the same dropping from 0.17 to 0.16 and his xG per shot has also risen albeit not significantly from 0.08 per shot to 0.09, from this we can assume that any drop in goal scoring is entirely on the player as the quality of his chances has remained quite similar, however he is shooting slightly less this season dropping from 2.18 to 1.81 shots per 90. His drop in finishing is highlighted by the fact that last season Ødegaard overperformed his non penalty xG by 0.2 but is underperforming it by 2.7 this season.
In terms of the assists the drop in his numbers is again on his doorstep. His xAG per 90 has dropped from 0.28 to 0.20 meaning he is creating chances of lower quality this season. His key passes per 90 have also slightly dropped 2.97 to 2.47 further indicating he is struggling to be as creative as he was last season.
Interestingly his progressive passes are still around 10 per game and his passes into the penalty area per 90 have also increased marginally as have his touches in the final third so we cannot say he is not getting the ball in good positions and that may be why he is struggling to create chances for his teammates. The most worrying attacking stat in my view is his drop in shot creating actions. He has gone from a 6.41 to 4.95 per 90.
This stat is a good approximation of how influential a player is in creating opportunities for his teammates either by supplying the pass leading to the shot or any other actions before such as a dribble, winning a set piece etc. This drop shows that his attacking influence is waning this season which is a worrying sign.
Ødegaard’s defensive numbers have also taken a hit. Though not known for his defensive ability the drop in numbers there show a player who seems to have regressed in all aspects of his game. His combined numbers for tackles, interceptions and blocks are lower than the previous 2 seasons and the drop from last season to this is quite noticeable. His tackles have gone from 1.43 to 0.84, interceptions from 0.44 to 0.18, and blocks from 0.67 to 0.18. This indicates a player who is below par in all aspects of his game.
There could be a number of reasons for this but the reduced defensive effort leads me to believe that the ankle injury he suffered earlier in the season must still be affecting him as even the stats related to effort seem to be affected by his malaise. Hopefully, a summer of rest will do him some good and he will return to his best next season as after three consecutive failed title challenges observers are beginning to wonder if Arsenal have reached their ceiling as currently constructed.
