On sheer levels of attrition enroute to the NBA Finals, the Eastern Conference winners Boston Celtics will emerge as NBA Champions at the expense of the Western Conference winners Dallas Mavericks.
Unlike Boston, Dallas endured significant battles with Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves before reaching its first NBA Finals since winning it all in 2011.
OKC Thunder’s youth led movement represent apex athleticism that tested the Mavericks speed and stamina while the very physical Timberwolves brought toughness that further sapped energy from the Dallas folks.
For Boston, they battled Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers that had its best player Donovan Mitchell miss time in the playoff series as did the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Finals that had Tyrese Haliburton hobbled by a hamstring injury.
Boston have certainly had an easier run to this year’s NBA Finals than its opponent and Mavericks’ star Guard Luka Doncic’s physical state is representative of this.
The Slovenian international, who will compete for his country in a FIBA qualification tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics after the NBA Finals, has been dealing with a knee sprain and an ankle injury throughout the playoffs and will get tested against Boston.
However, the good news for Dallas Mavericks is that the NBA Finals simply doesn’t work this way and the spaced out games in the best of seven games series, coupled with technology, give the Mavericks a huge chance to walk into the series as physically ready as possible.
Well, this is where the good news ends for Dallas as Boston Celtics hold the advantage in three critical categories that make them favourites to win the 2023-2024 NBA season title. For Boston, winning this year’s championship would be the team’s 18th in history and push them ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers as the NBA franchise with the most titles.
Boston edge Dallas on Offense
In the playoffs, the Boston Celtics hold the best offensive rating (120.1 points per game) ahead of sixth ranked Dallas Mavericks (116.6 points per game). Boston’s “more inclusive” offense has put up more points on the board simply by involving more players to score the basket.
Boston’s offense goes beyond its two best players Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Derrick White have consistently scored in double digits throughout the playoffs. However, the Mavericks sixth ranked offensive rating is down to relatively “limited” production from players other than Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Not to say, P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II, Tim Hardaway Jnr. and Daniel Gafford have produced anemic scoring numbers but their production doesn’t match Boston’s.
The Celtics’ high scoring ranking is no fluke either as Boston ranked second in offensive rating at the end of the regular season with Dallas scoring a similar mark as its post season production by ranking seventh. A four point average difference Boston hold is more than enough to decide the NBA Finals winner in what is bound to be a closely fought series.
Boston edge Dallas on Defense
Offense win games, defense win championship is the long held cliché in sports’ critical moments and that holds through based on the time a team leans into either side of the aforementioned cliché’s scope.
Real Madrid won a record extending 15th UEFA Champions League title by defending well, mostly in the first half with a bit of luck against Borussia Dortmund but turned on the offensive style in the second half to bag a 2-0 win.
The NBA’s last dynasty tag held by the Golden State Warriors played this “flip game” very well by using its game changing SMALL BALL system to slow down opponents offenses while using the system’s in-built speed to kill teams on the defensive end.
In this year’s Finals, Boston holds the edge over Dallas in defensive rating by three spots. The eliminated Orlando Magic and OKC Thunder hold the top two spots in defensive rating ranking with Boston spotted third and Dallas ranked sixth.
Like its offense, Boston can count on more players to produce on the less glamourous side of the court with Jaylen Brown and NBA All Defensive Second Team members Jrue Holiday and Derrick White ranked highly defensively.
While Al Horford and Jayson Tatum aren’t stellar defenders they aren’t slouch defenders either. On the flip side, Doncic and Kyrie have fared well defensively in these playoffs but fall short of the quality Tatum, Brown, Holiday and Boston bring to the table.
Boston have the NBA Finals X Factor
In such a closely matched Finals, having an ace card to play is sure to give the wielder an edge and in this series, Boston Celtics hold that ace card.
Others simply refer to this advantage as an X factor and no X Factor comes bigger and better than a 7 foot 2 inch player who scores close to the rim and doubles as a dangerous scorer from three point range and averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 57 regular season games.
Kristaps Porzingis has missed the entire playoffs this season due to a calf injury that has kept him out of action since April 29 and is in line to play the series opener on June 7. Despite admitting he isn’t fully healthy, Porzingis plans to play and getting the chance to win the NBA title ahead of his former team is sure to be enough motivation to get the big Latvian to play a key role in this series.
The storylines in this series are so beautiful as Porzingis isn’t the only player facing his former team with the enigmatic Kyrie Irving doing same after bolting Boston for Brooklyn Nets following a disappointing two-year stint with the Celtics.
Barring a shock drop in production at both ends or a significant injury loss, the Boston Celtics hold the edge over Dallas Mavericks and should ride on these advantages to win it all this year.
