On Sunday 20th October, Liverpool and Chelsea will renew their rivalry as a resurgent Chelsea visit Anfield to give Arne Slot arguably the first real test of his Premier League career. Both teams are doing well with Liverpool in first, 4 points ahead of the Blues, after 7 games.
Liverpool’s start to the season has been characterised by a miserly defence. They have conceded only 2 goals all season which ranks first in the league. Their attack has not suffered though as they have 13 goals which ranks fifth giving them the best goal difference in the league (+11).
Their solid defence has conceded the lowest expected goals (xG) in the league but this has been bolstered by the incredible goalkeeping of Alisson Becker. Becker has saved 88.2% of the shots he has faced and prevented 2.5 goals based on post shot xG the fourth highest mark in the league.
This feat is all the more incredible as the players ahead of him have all faced at least double the post shot xG this means the little he has to do he is doing incredibly well. Alisson however is out till the next international break and Liverpool will definitely miss him. Unfortunately for Chelsea, Caoimhín Kelleher is an adequate replacement.
Bizarrely Kelleher ranks 6th in goals prevented with 1.5 based on his lone appearance against Bournemouth in game week 5. This stat should be taken with a pinch of salt as it is the same number of goals he has prevented in his entire Premier League career. However, he is a net positive in this regard but he is not Alisson who consistently prevents a high number of goals.
Compared to Liverpool, Chelsea look like a work in progress but styles make the fight and Chelsea’s strengths may make this a difficult game for the Reds. Chelsea are one of the leading counter attacking sides in the league. They have taken the most shots from counter attacks with 11 and scored 3 goals from these situations.
This will be key against a Liverpool team who like to pin their opponents back. Liverpool have the 5th highest defensive line and cause their opponents to play the 5th deepest so far this season. Considering Liverpool’s only loss came against a Nottingham Forest team who sat deep and hit the on the break the blueprint to beat this Liverpool team has been set. Chelsea have also played the most through balls in the league this season (23) showing they love to play the ball beyond the defensive line and with a total xG of 14.4, the second highest in the league they are a potent attacking threat, and the best conversion rate in the league it could be a tough afternoon for the Liverpool back line.
While Chelsea’s strengths are a good match for Liverpool by the same token their weakness also plays into Liverpool’s hands. The most concerning will be their ability to deal with Liverpool’s press. Chelsea have committed 7 errors leading to shots, the 2nd highest this season. This indicates a well-coordinated press could take them apart and sloppy play is an issue for them.
Liverpool took full advantage of this in their clash vs Manchester United and have shown that they can and will take advantage of teams that make those mistakes. Chelsea also struggle from set pieces as they have conceded 3 set piece goals which ranks third. Liverpool are not a great set piece team this season but Trent Alexander Arnold and Andrew Robertson are some of the best corner takers in the league and in Ibrahima Konate and Virgil Van Djik, Liverpool have two aerially dominant centre backs to aim for.
Cole Palmer will obviously be the key man for Chelsea. Everything goes through him and if Liverpool can shut him down, they will likely take the 3 points. Palmer is second in goals and assists respectively and leads the league with 11 goal contributions. Being a high-volume scorer and creator is hard, but Palmer excels at it. He leads the league in expected Assisted Goals showing that his numerous are assists are to be expected. He is second in through balls the main weapon Chelsea have, as outlined earlier, second in shot creating actions, third in passes into the penalty area, second in goal creating actions, and sixth in fouls drawn.
These stats paint the picture of a high creative and dangerous facilitator but this in only half the story. Palmer has shown incredible prowess in front of goal. He is second in non-penalty goals with 5, is overperforming his non penalty xG by 1.4, and is top 10 for shots and shots on target stats most strikers in the PL would be jealous of. Palmer is an attacking force of nature and is reminiscent of Liverpool’s danger man when he was in his prime.
Mohammed Salah is not the player he once was, but he is still a player who can win you games if you let him. Salah is a three-time PL top scorer, an exclusive club that features Alan Shearer, Harry Kane and Thierry Henry (the only player with 4). He is also a recipient of the PL playmaker of the season award for the most assists in a campaign. Salah is 32 and is not as sharp as he once was but he is still a world class player and his contributions though not as mind blowing as previous seasons are still solid. He is currently fifth for goals with 4 and third for assists with the same amount. He also sits in the top 10 for expected goals, expected assisted goals and shot creating actions showing that he is a capable creator, though it has often been overshadowed by his incredible goal scoring.
His carries and dribbling also have stood out this season as he is in the top 10 with successful take ons and first in carries into the penalty area. His ability on the ball is also underrated and partly I suspect because of the comparisons with Eden Hazard who was one of the best dribblers of his generation. His ability to receive long balls is something that has always allowed Liverpool to move the ball quickly as he currently leads the league in progressive passes received and has been in the top 10 every year he has been in the league and leading the league twice in that time.
The game is finely poised to be a cracker however Liverpool’s comparative lack of weaknesses compared to Chelsea’s flaws makes them strong favourites however if Chelsea play to their strengths, they may able to sneak a win at one of the most intimidating stadiums in world football.
