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Where did it go wrong for Erik Ten Hag: a Statistical Perspective

Susu Graham by Susu Graham
October 31, 2024
Reading Time: 4 mins read

The storm is over, Erik Ten Hag has been put out of his misery, and Manchester United are once again looking for a manager to bring back the good times.

Ten Hag famously proclaimed, “Eras come to an end” and promised to bring the Red Devils back to their rightful place in English football however things have not ended as expected and 128 games later his English adventure has come to end.

There have been highs but too many lows. His League and FA Cup triumphs in consecutive seasons spring to mind. The latter featuring goals from two players who made their professional debuts under the Dutchman as they beat their city rivals to deny them a double. However, the league form was not good enough and some of the defeats were difficult to watch.

Between the 7-0 defeat to Liverpool, the 4-0 humbling by Palace, or the 4-3 capitulation at Copenhagen. It is a tough task to pick the defining defeat of Ten Hag’s tenure. It is difficult to believe how the last 18 months have turned out. At that point United were 4th and about to start a late-season push that would see them finish third and reach the FA Cup final, one they would eventually lose, powered by Marcus Rashford’s lethal finishing.

Ten Hag’s side finished its first Premier League season with the second-best home record going 18 games unbeaten after an opening day home defeat to Brighton. Their away form was concerning as they struggled to win against sides in the top half but many saw signs that Ten Hag could build something worth supporting.

This was a false dawn. United regressed horribly the following season. United had their worst finish in Premier League history coming 8th with a goal difference of – 1. Their biggest problem was they could not stop opponents from shooting. The Manchester side allowed 660 shots in the league last season or 17.4, the second worst in Europe’s top 5 leagues only better than Sheffield United. Their xG conceded was also 7th worst of the 96 teams in the sample. Five of the six teams with worse numbers were relegated and two finished last in their respective leagues showing the rotten company they were keeping in this regard. That season contributed to them also having the fifth worst xG against in the Premier League over the matches Ten Hag managed, this only includes teams that have neither been relegated or promoted in that time, but still indicative of a lack of quality in defence.

The loss of form of Marcus Rashford is one of the major issues that has faced Ten Hag in his last few months. After 30 goals in his first season, Rashford has managed just 12 thereafter. This season especially those goals would have been welcome. This season United have been a bit sturdier in the league at least but their profligacy is ultimately what was the cause of death for the Ten Hag regime. Ten Hag’s swansong at the London Stadium was a caricature of his time at the helm. They dominated early on and should have gone ahead but wasted their chances none more glaring than Diogo Dalot’s.

His signings have barely worked out. Mason Mount cost north of €60m and has managed only 973 minutes, the equivalent of 11 games, he was meant to help fix the midfield but has made no impact as his body has not allowed him.

My weight fluctuates' - Rasmus Hojlund 'feels good again' but Man Utd star  worried about another injury setback | Goal.com Ghana

Rasmus Højlund cost over €70m, the Danish striker has had a huge weight placed on his shoulders to be the striker to fire Manchester United back to the top, but this was always going to be a huge ask for a player who scored only 9 Serie A goals last season. However, paying that much for a striker with 21 club goals was always going to be a risk and despite his 16 goals in all competitions last season, his signing has felt very underwhelming so far as he does not seem ready to be the main man for a team in transition.

However, none has been more disastrous than former Ajax winger Antony who in 87 games has managed 12 goals and 5 assists. These numbers are extremely disappointing for a player who cost €95m and was expected to be the solution to the club’s long-standing right-wing problem. These poor signings exerted more pressure on Ten Hag and made observers question his talent ID.

At the end of the day, there were a lot of questionable results, numbers and decisions surrounding Ten Hag’s Manchester United. For me, his 2023/24 season was more than enough to merit a sacking, and the FA Cup win should not have swayed INEOS in their decision-making. He was not able to use his second chance to regain confidence and has been duly sacked.

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