Following what seemed like a routine path to the African Cup of Nations tournament after three wins from three, the Black Stars now face a perilous end to the qualifying campaign.
While qualification remains squarely in their hands, the loss last time out in Sudan has made head coach, C.K Akonnor’s task a little tougher than he would have wanted.
The Stars and South Africa are tied at the top of Group C (along with Sudan who have played a game more) on nine points and face each other later today at the FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
The Contenders
Any two from Ghana, South Africa and Sudan can qualify for the AFCON. The three teams have nine points (although Sudan have played a game more). Sao Tome and Principe have no chance to qualify as they currently have 0 points.
The Rules
CAF’s rules for the AFCON qualifiers state that teams are ranked according to points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss). If tied on points, tiebreakers are applied in the following order:
- The team that obtained the most points in the matches between the teams in question
- The goal difference in the matches between the teams in question
- Goals scored in the matches between the teams in question
- Away goals scored in the matches between the teams in question
- If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;
- Goal difference in all group matches;
- Goals scored in all group matches;
- Away goals scored in all group matches;
- Drawing of lots.
The Permutations
Current group standings
SCENARIO 1: If Black Stars beat South Africa
- The Black Stars go through to the AFCON
- South Africa will need at least a point against Sudan in their final game to qualify.
- Sudan will need at least a point against South Africa in their final game to qualify.
SCENARIO 2: If Black Stars draw with South Africa
- With Sudan and South Africa playing each other in the final game, only one of those sides will be able to overtake the Stars if Ghana gets at least a point against Sao Tome and Principe, meaning the Black Stars will go through.
- (and if Ghana loses to Sao Tome and Principe in the final game) – a win over Sudan would take South Africa through as group winners, knocking the Sudanese out. Ghana go through as runners-up.
- (and if Ghana loses to Sao Tome and Principe in the final game) – a win over South Africa would take Sudan through as group winners, leaving the Stars level on points with the South Africans. With a better points tally in meetings between the two sides, Ghana would go through.
- (and if Ghana loses to Sao Tome and Principe in the final game) – a draw between South Africa and Sudan would take South Africa through as group winners. Sudan would then finish level on 10 points with Ghana. Both sides have a win over the other but the Black Stars have a better goal difference in those meetings; beating Sudan 2-0 and losing 1-0.
SCENARIO 3: If Black Stars lose to South Africa
- Ghana will need to beat Sao Tome and Principe to qualify. If Ghana does beat Sao Tome and Principe, Sudan will not qualify, no matter their result against South Africa. If they beat South Africa and finish level on 12 points with Ghana. Both sides have a win over the other but the Black Stars have a better goal difference in those meetings; beating Sudan 2-0 and losing 1-0.
- (and if Ghana draws with Sao Tome and Principe in the final game) The Black Stars will finish on 10 points. A win for Sudan over South Africa will take Sudan above Ghana (12 points), meaning the Black Stars will be knocked out.
- (and if Ghana loses Sao Tome and Principe in the final game) The Black Stars will be knocked out if Sudan get at least a point against South Africa.
