Defending European champions, Portugal, face a tough night tonight when they play world champions France in their final group game at Euro 2020.
The Portuguese started the tournament with a 3-0 win over Hungary, however, a humbling loss to Germany in their second game has left them in a perilous position.
Portugal are third in their group, level on points with Germany, who are almost certain to avoid defeat against Hungary and are now in danger of failing to make it out of their group.
But they have been in this position before.
At the last Euros tournament, Portugal drew all three of their group games, finishing with three points and only qualified to the Round of 16 as one of the best third-placed teams on goal difference.
Of course, they went on to win the whole thing. But I’m sure they would want this campaign to be a lot less scary.
So what do they need to qualify?
The Rules
The Euros have six groups, each with four teams. The top two teams in each group qualify for the knockout rounds. The four best third-placed teams will join them to round out the list for the second round.
UEFA’s rules state that teams are ranked according to points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss). If tied on points, tiebreakers are applied in the following order:
- The team that obtained the most points in the matches between the teams in question
- The goal difference in the matches between the teams in question
- Goals scored in the matches between the teams in question
- If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;
If the teams are still level, these tiebreakers are applied:
- Superior goal difference in all group matches
- Higher number of goals scored in all group matches
- Higher number of wins in all group matches
- Penalty shootout
- Lower disciplinary points total in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card)
- Higher position in the European Qualifiers overall ranking.
Portugal’s situation
So what do Portugal need?
SCENARIO 1: If Portugal beat France
- Portugal will qualify for the Round of 16, while Germany need a point against Hungary to secure a place in the knockout round. Hungary need a win to stand any chance of qualifying
SCENARIO 2: If Portugal draws with France
- Portugal will qualify for the Round of 16, while Germany need a point against Hungary to secure a place in the knockout round. Hungary need a win to stand any chance of qualifying
SCENARIO 3: If Portugal loses to France
- Portugal will qualify for the Round of 16 as long as the margin of defeat is less than three goals. (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc.). They have a better goal difference than Finland and Ukraine, who have played three games and are on three points. However, a loss of more than two goals (3-0, 4-1, etc.) will mean that they must hope that results in Group E go their way, with Spain facing Slovakia and already-qualified Sweden taking on Poland. Poland, Slovakia and Spain can all still qualify.
