In the last game before the November international break, Arsenal will travel to Chelsea looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses to Internazionale and Newcastle. The Gunners are currently 5th, 7 points behind the leaders at a key stage of the season. Chelsea on the other hand will be looking to consolidate their top 4 position and poise themselves to return to the Champions League come next September.
It has been over a month since Arsenal won a league match and in that time Liverpool and Manchester City have gained 6 and 5 more points, respectively. For a team that was meant to challenge for the title, this has been a poor run of form especially compared to their rivals. Arsenal’s away form has been worrying, they have failed to win any of their last 3 away games and have scored 2 goals in that time. Their last away goal came in late September. Arsenal need to enter their road warrior mode which saw them win the second most away points last season and have the best away goal difference. Chelsea are the perfect opponents in this regard the Blues are better away from home where their counter-attacking prowess can exploit the space left by home teams.
Arsenal’s underlying numbers are positive. Despite a tough start to the season, they rank 4th for xG Difference with 5.1. This stat has been powered by their defence which ranks 3rd for xG against with 10.4. This shows Arsenal have been defensively solid despite this, fans have complained about their attacking output and the numbers back it up. Last season Arsenal had the 3rd highest xG in the league they currently rank 8th with 15.5. Bukayo Saka has done his best to carry the load. He ranks 2nd in xAG (Expected Assisted Goals) and 3rd in xA (Expected Assists) but the lack of creativity from other players is playing its part.
In addition, their top goal scorer, Kai Havertz, only has 4 goals, none of which have come away from home. Their lack of a dependable goal scorer is a huge issue at this point, and despite Havertz being a serviceable striker, he needs to do better, especially away from home.
Club captain Martin Ødegaard cannot return soon enough. The Norwegian posted monster creative numbers last season. He led the league in passes into the penalty area, xA, Through Balls, and shot-creating actions. He was also 3rd in the Premier League for Key passes, 2nd in progressive passes, and 4th in goal-creating actions. Ødegaard came on in their last game but a start might be beyond him and Arsenal have missed him dearly.
Arsenal’s set-piece prowess has often been the redeeming quality in this period without their captain. 4 of their 17 goals have come from set pieces the second most after Aston Villa. Arsenal are a physically imposing side and Chelsea need to be alert to make sure they do not concede needless goals from set pieces.
Arsenal have been their own worst enemies. They have committed 10 errors in the league, only 19th placed Southampton have committed more a damning stat. This indicates that Arsenal are vulnerable to a good press and quick transitions which is becoming Chelsea’s speciality.
Chelsea are the counter-attacking kings of the PL. They have scored 4 counter attacking goals which ranks 2nd and have taken the most shots on the counter with 14. This has contributed to them having the 4th highest xG (18.1) and the 3rd most goals (20). Their ability to hit through Balls has been key to this with their 30 completed leading the league.
Cole Palmer has been key to this. Even without his goals, which are the 4th most in the league, he is one of the most dangerous players in the league. He leads the league in xAG and key passes. He also ranks in the top 3 for assists (2nd), Through Balls (3rd), and shot-creating actions (2nd). He is however an injury doubt, and one wonders how Chelsea will cope if he cannot play.
Chelsea do not have the set piece release valve like Arsenal. They rank 20th for set piece xG compared to 4th for Arsenal. Chelsea also give away too many penalties. With 3 penalties conceded so far, they are on course to give away at least 11 which would be higher than any team last season. They need to do better as Arsenal have a very capable penalty taker in Kai Havertz, who is 10 for 10 in his club career.
Arsenal need a result more than Chelsea and a win will go a long way in restoring confidence in their title charge which seems to be on its last legs. However, Chelsea will not be an easy opponent and will also look to take their first win against a Big 6 side this season to show they are ready to compete with the big boys. Whatever the result one manager will have much to ponder over the coming international break.
